The Global Talent CrunchSector perspective

Three knowledge-intensive sectors – financial and business services; technology, media and telecomms (TMT); and manufacturing – face major disruption due to the talent crunch.

The Global Talent CrunchSector perspective

Three knowledge-intensive sectors – financial and business services; technology, media and telecomms (TMT); and manufacturing – face major disruption due to the talent crunch.

Financial and business services

2030: Labor skills shortage of 10.7 million workers and unrealized output of $1.313 trillion.

Financial and business services is one of the world’s most important sectors in terms of contribution to GDP and it’s the sector most threatened by severe talent shortages. Our study forecasts a deficit of 10.7 million workers by 2030, equivalent to more than 45 times the global workforce of HSBC Bank.

  • Markets in our study could miss out on generating $1.313 trillion of revenue by 2030 due to skills shortages in the financial and business services sector.
  • The top five financial centers in our study—the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France—could fail to generate $870.47 billion by 2030, with the United States accounting for half of this (equivalent to 1.5% of the projected 2030 US economy).
  • European financial centers like the UK and Germany could struggle to retain their global positions due to looming skilled-talent shortages, with the UK facing a skills shortage equivalent to a fifth of its sector workforce by 2030.
  • Japan, the world’s sixth biggest financial center, could fail to generate $113.62 billion in 2030, equivalent to more than 18% of the sector’s potential value in 2030.
  • India is the only country expected to have a surplus of highly skilled financial and business services labor by 2030.

Financial and business services labor deficit.

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Where will the world's leading financial center be in 2030?

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2030: Global financial and business services talent deficit by economy.

The acuteness of an economy’s deficit is based on its overall shortage of workers, not accounting for the size of its total workforce.

Global financial services players are already experiencing skilled-talent shortages and are set to face the greatest talent gap of any industry sector in the next decade. Financial services leaders need to act now or they will forfeit substantial growth opportunity.

Michael Franzino,
President, Global Financial Services, Korn Ferry

Technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT)

2030: Labor skills shortage of 4.3 million workers and unrealized output of $449.7 billion.

Technology underpins all other sectors of the global economy, but its advancement could be stalled by serious talent problems. Such deficits are already evident and Korn Ferry research forecasts that by 2030 the labor-skills shortage will reach 4.3 million workers. This is equivalent to 59 times the number of employees of Alphabet, Google’s parent company. While the digital revolution often seems unstoppable, it could be about to hit a wall.

  • The United States, currently the world’s leading technology market, can expect to lose out on $162.25 billion by 2030 due to sector skills shortages. These talent deficits may imperil America’s status as the global tech center.
  • China, which has labored to transform itself into a world-leading tech center, could fail to generate $44.45 billion of revenue by 2030 due to skills shortages.
  • Japan’s demographics work against it, with sector skills deficits marked already and projected to reach 280,000 workers by 2020. The shortfall will rise to more than 500,000 highly skilled workers by 2030, threatening Japan’s position as a global top-5 tech market.
  • By 2030, the UK will fail to realize almost 9% of TMT sector potential revenue due to skills shortages.
  • India is again the only country expected to have a skilled-labor surplus, expected to reach 1.3 million workers by 2030, creating opportunities for India to further develop its importance as a technology center.

Technology, media, and telecommunications labor deficit.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?


Will the TMT sector be able to mitigate its own talent crunch through creating new technology?

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2030: Global technology, media, and telecommunications talent deficit by economy.

The acuteness of an economy’s deficit is based on its overall shortage of workers, not accounting for the size of its total workforce.

The United States is so far failing to equip the next generation with the new skills that are needed to fill large numbers of high-tech roles. As with many economies, the onus falls on companies to train workers, and also to encourage governments to rethink education programs to generate the talent pipelines the industry will require.

Werner Penk,
President, Global Technology Market, Korn Ferry

Manufacturing

2030: Labor skills shortage of 7.9 million and unrealized output of $607.14 billion.

A solid manufacturing industry is needed to meet domestic product demand, generate export revenue, and provide the equipment and instruments that other sectors need to flourish. Manufacturing is especially critical for developing markets, with this sector accounting for 35% or so of China’s economy. But manufacturing is headed toward a crisis. By 2030, the sector faces a global labor shortage of 7.9 million workers, the equivalent of 39 times the number of Ford employees worldwide.

  • The abundance of manufacturing talent in China and Russia will drive a global surplus of highly skilled manufacturing workers until 2020. But, by 2030, all countries except India face deficits in highly skilled labor in the sector.
  • Developing countries with strong manufacturing centers may begin to struggle due to severe talent shortages: By 2030, Brazil could suffer manufacturing worker deficits of 1.7 million, while Indonesia could see worker shortages reach 1.6 million.
  • The United States, the world’s most important manufacturing economy, already struggles with shortfalls in highly skilled manufacturing talent. This deficit is expected to increase over the next decade, reaching a 2030 shortfall of 383,000 such workers, equivalent to more than 10% of the highly skilled workforce.
  • Japan, the No. three manufacturing economy in the firm’s study, could fail to realize $194.61 billion by 2030 due to severe labor shortages in this sector, the highest amount of any country analyzed, representing 3% of the country’s entire economy.

Manufacturing labor deficit.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?


By 2030, which countries are predicted to miss out on the most revenue due to manufacturing skills shortages?

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2030: Global manufacturing talent deficit by economy.

The acuteness of an economy’s deficit is based on its overall shortage of workers, not accounting for the size of its total workforce.

Automation may promise great gains for manufacturing; indeed, technology may replace some of the labor of mid-skilled and low-skilled workers. But the demand for people who can innovate, create, manage, and apply new developments — typically highly skilled people — will skyrocket, partly in response. Jobs won’t disappear but they’ll evolve. That’s why the talent crunch is a political problem too: Equal opportunities to learn and develop need to be offered to everyone. Whether individuals choose to take them will be a critical personal choice.

Yannick Binvel,
President Global Industrial Market, Korn Ferry

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